Higher interest rates on the horizon

Global Market Review A positive finish to 2021 Despite the spread of the Omicron variant of Covid-19, major equity markets around the world ended 2021 in positive territory, boosted by mounting hopes that the variant would prove less serious than initially feared. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index rose by 5.4% during … Continue reading “Higher interest rates on the horizon”

An optimistic start to 2022

Markets have opened with a flourish – dismissing the new variant and inflationary pressures: should investors follow this new-found optimism? The year has started, slightly surprisingly, on an optimistic note. Technology shares sold down as economically-sensitive sectors such as banks and energy led markets higher. Investors have made their views clear – Omicron is mild, … Continue reading “An optimistic start to 2022”

Inflation: not so transitory after all

Inflationary pressures are real and are looking increasingly persistent rather than transitory. Investors need to be wary of the assumption that all equities can weather an inflation storm. Inflation is now over 5% in the UK. This is considerably ahead of the Bank of England’s targets and also ahead of its expectations. To date, stock … Continue reading “Inflation: not so transitory after all”

Economic Review – November 2021

Inflationary pressures mount Official statistics show the UK headline rate of inflation now stands at a 10-year high, with surveys pointing to further upward pressure as firms continue to report rapidly-rising cost burdens. Data released last month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which … Continue reading “Economic Review – November 2021”

Inflationary headaches intensify

Global Market Review Omicron variant hits sentiment Global equity markets generally fell over November as investors digested new of the discovery of the new “Omicron” variant of the Covid-19 virus in South Africa, which triggered concerns that the economic recovery might be derailed. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell warned that the emergence of the … Continue reading “Inflationary headaches intensify”

Higher inflation for longer

Global Market Review Intensifying inflationary pressures The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the world is facing inflationary pressures that will be “higher and longer than expected”. During October, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell commented: “We now see higher inflation and the bottlenecks lasting well into next year … I do think it’s time … Continue reading “Higher inflation for longer”

Three reasons why markets may slide

Having looked at the bull case for stock markets,  it is worth examining the bear case. There are structural forces conspiring against equities today, from slowing growth, to high valuations to rising interest rates. We look at why these elements may prove to be the final straw for the lengthy bull run in global share … Continue reading “Three reasons why markets may slide”

Three reasons why stock markets can power onwards

A lengthy bull market is always nerve-wracking. Investors start to fret on valuations, on earnings, on the strength of economic growth. As valuations creep higher, but economic growth remains strong, we look at the bull and bear case for equities today. First, we examine three reasons why investors could be cheerful about the prospects for … Continue reading “Three reasons why stock markets can power onwards”

Economic Review October 2021

OBR forecasts stronger growth The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has upgraded its UK economic growth forecast and is now predicting the economy will return to its pre-pandemic level six months earlier than previously expected. Chancellor Rishi Sunak unveiled the independent forecaster’s revised projections during his Budget statement delivered to the House of Commons on … Continue reading “Economic Review October 2021”

Economic Review September 2021

Upgrade to UK GDP growth The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revised UK economic growth for Q2 2021 to 5.5% from an original estimate of 4.8%. The UK’s level of GDP is now 3.3% below where it was pre-pandemic in Q4 2019, revised from the previous estimate of 4.4% below. Other ONS data indicates … Continue reading “Economic Review September 2021”